February 2026 floods in Northern Colombia likely strengthened by human-driven climate change

Contact Authors

• Alejandra M. Carmona, Universidad EAFIT, Colombia 📨amcarmonad@eafit.edu.co 🗣️Spanish, English

• Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, PIK, Germany  📨vallejo.bernal@pik-potsdam.de 🗣️Spanish, English

• Davide Faranda, IPSL-CNRS, France  📨davide.faranda@lsce.ipsl.fr    🗣️English,French, Italian

Citation

• Carmona, A. M., Vallejo-Bernal, S. M., & Faranda, D. (2026). February 2026 floods in Northern Colombia likely strengthened by human-driven climate change. ClimaMeter, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, CNRS. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18679132

Press Summary

• Meteorological conditions similar to those causing the floods in northern Colombia on 01–03 February 2026 are up to ~5–8 mm/day wetter in the present (1988–2025) than in the past (1950–1987).

•  The event was associated with exceptional large-scale moisture transport from the Caribbean Sea affecting both the central Caribbean coast (Magdalena–Atlántico) and the Gulf of Urabá (Antioquia). 

• Northern Colombia floods were driven by very exceptional meteorological conditions.

• Natural climate variability alone cannot explain the increase in precipitation associated with this event.

Event Description

Between 01 and 03 February 2026, intense and persistent rainfall affected Northern Colombia, including the Caribbean coastal departments of Magdalena, Atlántico, Córdoba, Bolívar and the Urabá region of Antioquia. According to official information from the Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales (IDEAM), rainfall in early February was anomalously high and exceeded historical averages in several regions.

The meteorological configuration during this event was characterized by strengthened northeasterly winds and moisture flux over the Caribbean basin that favored persistent onshore moisture transport. Daily accumulated precipitation locally exceeded 40–70 mm/day, with maxima near the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta and prominent rainfall observed over the Gulf of Urabá and the foothills of the Serranía de Abibe. Surface pressure anomalies indicated a regional-scale setup favoring moisture convergence, with embedded convective systems driving extreme rainfall patterns.

As of  February 11th, Colombia’s National Unit for Disaster Risk Management (UNGRD) reported that this persistent heavy rains and flooding affected more than 58,000 families in 93 municipalities, with at least 18 fatalities confirmed across 16 departments, making Córdoba one of the hardest-hit regions (UNGR Report). 

Climate and Data Background for the Analysis

According to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, tropical regions are expected to experience intensification of heavy precipitation events under global warming due to increased atmospheric moisture content (high confidence). Observational trends in South America suggest a rise in extreme rainfall indices where low-level moisture transport is significant. IDEAM’s climate bulletins document rainfall anomalies in early 2026 and provide seasonal outlooks highlighting a continuation of active rainfall regimes across Colombia into February and beyond due to overlapping atmospheric drivers (e.g., moisture inflow, cold fronts, regional circulation anomalies) . 

For this event we have low confidence in the robustness of our approach given the available climate data, as the event is very exceptional in the data record.

ClimaMeter Analysis 

We analyse here (see methodology for more details) how events similar to  to the meteorological conditions leading to Colombia Floods have changed in the present (2001-2022) compared to what they would have looked like if they had occurred in the past (1979-2000) in the region [80°W–72°W, 4°N–17°N]. Surface-pressure differences between present and past analogues are modest (within ±1 hPa), indicating that the large-scale dynamical forcing has not substantially deepened in the present climate. The event remains primarily characterized by a moisture-transport configuration rather than an anomalously intense pressure minimum. Present-day analogues show warming of approximately +1 to +1.5 °C across Northern Colombia, including the Gulf of Urabá, relative to past analogues. This reflects a possible thermodynamic background shift associated with global warming. Precipitation changes reveal a robust amplification signal. Under circulation patterns like those of early February 2026, present-day analogues are locally up to ~6–8 mm/day wetter than past analogues. This corresponds to an approximate 10–15% increase in rainfall intensity under similar synoptic conditions. Wind-speed changes show localized increases up to +3–4 km/h over the Caribbean Sea and near the Gulf of Urabá. Enhanced low-level flow strengthens moisture convergence along the coast and contributes to increased rainfall efficiency, particularly in regions with strong orographic influence.

Finally, we find that sources of natural climate variability, notably the the persistence of a North American cold front over the Caribbean region, along with the interaction of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, may have only partly influenced the event. This means that the changes we see in the event compared to the past may be mostly due to human driven climate change.

Conclusion

Based on the above, we interpret the February 2026 floods in Northern Colombia, including the Urabá region of Antioquia, as an event driven by very exceptional meteorological conditions embedded in a warmer and moister climate system. The increased rainfall intensity under dynamically comparable synoptic situations is consistent with the expected influence of human-driven climate change, while regional climate variability also contributed to the event’s development.