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ClimaMeter is a rapid framework for understanding extreme weather events in a changing climate based on looking at similar past weather situations. ClimaMeter is hosted by the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace.
ClimaMeter is a rapid framework for understanding extreme weather events in a changing climate based on looking at similar past weather situations. ClimaMeter is hosted by the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace.
Strong winds and heavy precipitation in hurricane Melissa enhanced by both human driven climate change and natural variability
Strong winds and heavy precipitation in hurricane Melissa enhanced by both human driven climate change and natural variability
In October 2025, Hurricane Melissa underwent rapid intensification in the Caribbean Sea, reaching Category 5 strength and threatening Jamaica and other Caribbean countries with torrential rainfall, hurricane-force winds, and widespread coastal flooding. Three people have already died in Jamaica. On the Guantanamo coast of Cuba and in parts of Haiti, officials ordered mass evacuations ahead of the storm, with emergency response units mobilized for rescue operations.
ClimaMeter found that cyclones similar to Hurricane Melissa are around 0.5 °C warmer, up to 14 mm/day (10%) wetter, and up to 8 km/h (up to 10% windier) in the present compared to the past. This contributes to more extreme rainfall and flooding risks, in urban areas like Kingston. We interpret the increased precipitation and stronger winds associated with Hurricane Melissa as being amplified by human-driven climate change, while natural variability played an important role in modulating the storm’s development and trajectory.
Image Credits: Hurricane Melissa Sat Image CSU-CIRA/RAMMB/NOAA
October 2025 New South Wales wildfires likely fueled by both human-driven climate change and natural variability
October 2025 New South Wales wildfires likely fueled by both human-driven climate change and natural variability
Large-scale wildfires broke out in New South Wales on 22 October 2025, affecting areas around Sydney during an intense early-season heatwave. Temperatures soared above 37 °C, prompting catastrophic fire danger warnings. According to the NSW Rural Fire Service, several major blazes threatened residential areas, forced evacuations, and damaged property on the city’s urban fringes. The fires were fueled by very low humidity, parched vegetation following a prolonged dry spell, and strong northwesterly winds exceeding 50 km/h, which made firefighting extremely difficult. Authorities issued total fire bans across large areas of the state.
Based on the above, we conclude that meteorological conditions leading to the October 2025 New South Wales wildfires are up to 1.5 °C hotter and up to 2.5 km/h windier (up to 10 %) compared to similar past events.compared to similar past events. We interpret this as an event driven by rare meteorological conditions for which natural climate variability played a role.
Image credits: The Independent
Storm Amy likely intensified by both human driven climate change and natural variability
Storm Amy likely intensified by both human driven climate change and natural variability
Storm Amy was the first named storm of the 2025/26 UK–Ireland season and developed rapidly in the North Atlantic from the remnants of Hurricanes Humberto and Imelda interacting with the jet stream. The system moved eastward and affected the UK and Ireland between 3–4 October 2025, bringing widespread strong winds and heavy rainfall. Forecast models accurately anticipated its intensity, with peak gusts of 96 mph (155 km/h) recorded on Tiree and a central pressure of 947.9 hPa in Shetland—setting a new UK October record. The storm caused extensive travel disruption, power outages, and coastal impacts, particularly across Scotland, northern England, and Ireland. Western and northwestern Ireland experienced the most severe conditions, with red and orange warnings issued and one fatality reported in County Donegal. Amy’s impacts extended to parts of continental Europe, including Norway, Sweden, Belgium, and northern France, where strong gusts led to two additional fatalities and orange-level alerts.
ClimaMeter found that storms similar to Amy are 2hPa deeper, up to 3 mm/day (10%) wetter, and windier by up to 4 km/h (10%) in the present compared to the past. We interpret Storm Amy as an event of very rare meteorological conditions for which natural climate variability played a role.
Image: Yachts blown ashore onto rocks near Strachur in Argyll (BBC)
Super-Typhoon Ragasa likely strengthened by human-driven climate change
Super-Typhoon Ragasa likely strengthened by human-driven climate change
Between 21 and 23st Of September, Super Typhoon Ragasa rapidly intensified over the western Pacific, lashing northern Luzon and Taiwan with destructive winds and extreme rainfall, triggering deadly floods and landslides (at least ~25 fatalities reported across the Philippines and Taiwan by the 23rd), while Hong Kong issued its top typhoon warnings as seawater inundated streets and buildings and hundreds of flights were canceled; mass evacuations—approaching two million people—were ordered along China’s Guangdong coast ahead of landfall, with officials warning of dangerous storm surge and life-threatening conditions.
ClimaMeter found that cyclones similar to Super Typhoon Ragasa are around 1°C warmer, up to 10 mm/day (10%) wetter, and slightly windier by up to 4 km/h in the present compared to the past. They contribute to more extreme rainfall and flooding risks, particularly in the Philippines’ mountainous terrain and neighboring coastal regions. We interpret Super Typhoon Ragasa as an event of exceptional meteorological conditions whose characteristics can mostly be ascribed to human driven climate change.
Picture: The MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) on NASA’s Terra satellite acquired this image of Ragasa at 01:40 Universal Time on September 23, 2025
Heavy rain in September 2025 Bali floods mostly intensified by human-driven climate change
Heavy rain in September 2025 Bali floods mostly intensified by human-driven climate change
On 9–10 September 2025, torrential rains exceeding 385 mm in 24 hours caused Bali’s worst flooding in over a decade, killing at least 17 people, leaving many missing, and triggering landslides that devastated homes, roads, and bridges across Denpasar, Ubud, and Singaraja. The disaster, worsened by deforestation and rapid development, unfolded as South Asia endures an exceptionally severe monsoon season, with India facing its wettest start in a century and Pakistan reporting over 900 deaths and millions displaced.
ClimaMeter found that meteorological conditions leading to the September 2025 floods in Bali are up to 2 mm/day wetter (up to 7%) compared to similar past events. Natural variability alone cannot explain the changes in precipitation associated with this very exceptional meteorological condition.
People wade through a flooded street after heavy rain in Bali, Indonesia. Photograph: Dicky Bisinglasi/Reuters
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