ClimaMeter
Understanding Extreme Weather in a Changing Climate
ClimaMeter is an experimental rapid framework for understanding extreme weather events in a changing climate based on looking at similar past weather situations. Find out more here and follow us on X.
ClimaMeter is an experimental rapid framework for understanding extreme weather events in a changing climate based on looking at similar past weather situations. Find out more here and follow us on X.
April 2024 China floods exacerbated by both human-driven climate change and natural variability
April 2024 China floods exacerbated by both human-driven climate change and natural variability
Between 20-23 April, Guangdong experienced three days of heavy rainfall, leading to massive flooding. More than 100,000 people had to be evacuated and at least four people died and 10 are missing. To evaluate the role of climate change and natural phenomena such as El Niño, both of which are known to increase the intensity of heavy rainfall, ClimaMeter used historical observations to evaluate how similar storms developed in the past (1979-2001) and compare it to how they develop now, in recent decades (2001-2023), when the effects of global warming have become more evident.
Between 20-23 April, Guangdong experienced three days of heavy rainfall, leading to massive flooding. More than 100,000 people had to be evacuated and at least four people died and 10 are missing. To evaluate the role of climate change and natural phenomena such as El Niño, both of which are known to increase the intensity of heavy rainfall, ClimaMeter used historical observations to evaluate how similar storms developed in the past (1979-2001) and compare it to how they develop now, in recent decades (2001-2023), when the effects of global warming have become more evident.
ClimaMeter found that meteorological depressions similar to those behind these floods, today bring up to 12% more rain than they did in the last decades of the 20th century. The analysis concludes that both El Niño and human-induced climate change are likely behind this increase.
ClimaMeter found that meteorological depressions similar to those behind these floods, today bring up to 12% more rain than they did in the last decades of the 20th century. The analysis concludes that both El Niño and human-induced climate change are likely behind this increase.
Image: Roads submerged in flood waters after heavy rainfall in Qingyuan. Photograph: Tingshu Wang/Reuters
Low confidence prevents ascribing Dubai Floods changes in intensity to human-driven climate change
Low confidence prevents ascribing Dubai Floods changes in intensity to human-driven climate change
On April 16, 2024, an unprecedented outbreak of thunderstorms swept countries surrounding the Persian Gulf, following the development of a low-pressure system over central Saudi Arabia a day prior. This led to the formation of a significant storm complex, resulting in severe impacts across the region. The UAE bore the brunt of the storm, witnessing the largest recorded rainfall since 1949, with up to 254 mm falling in less than 24 hours in Al Ain. The city of Dubai and its international airport grappled with widespread disruption caused by the storm and accompanying straight-line winds. Flash floods inundated numerous areas, necessitating the rescue of stranded individuals. Despite anticipatory measures and forecasts, the storm tragically claimed the lives of at least 19 people.
On April 16, 2024, an unprecedented outbreak of thunderstorms swept countries surrounding the Persian Gulf, following the development of a low-pressure system over central Saudi Arabia a day prior. This led to the formation of a significant storm complex, resulting in severe impacts across the region. The UAE bore the brunt of the storm, witnessing the largest recorded rainfall since 1949, with up to 254 mm falling in less than 24 hours in Al Ain. The city of Dubai and its international airport grappled with widespread disruption caused by the storm and accompanying straight-line winds. Flash floods inundated numerous areas, necessitating the rescue of stranded individuals. Despite anticipatory measures and forecasts, the storm tragically claimed the lives of at least 19 people.
ClimaMeter analysis shows that depressions similar to those behind the Dubai Floods exhibit slight increases in intensity, 1 °C warmer temperatures, and 3 mm/day less precipitation compared to historical counterparts. Our analysis also reveals that this type of events are marked by a seasonal shift in weather patterns, with historically rare occurrences now extending up to April, while previously occurring up to March. However, confidence in these findings is limited due to the exceptional nature of the event under scrutiny..
ClimaMeter analysis shows that depressions similar to those behind the Dubai Floods exhibit slight increases in intensity, 1 °C warmer temperatures, and 3 mm/day less precipitation compared to historical counterparts. Our analysis also reveals that this type of events are marked by a seasonal shift in weather patterns, with historically rare occurrences now extending up to April, while previously occurring up to March. However, confidence in these findings is limited due to the exceptional nature of the event under scrutiny..
Image: Dubai Floods, source: twitter
Other Recent Extreme Events
Other Recent Extreme Events
