ClimaMeter
Understanding Extreme Weather in a Changing Climate
ClimaMeter is an experimental rapid framework for understanding extreme weather events in a changing climate based on looking at similar past weather situations. Find out more here and follow us on X.
ClimaMeter is an experimental rapid framework for understanding extreme weather events in a changing climate based on looking at similar past weather situations. Find out more here and follow us on X.
Italy Multiple Floods mostly strengthened by Human-driven Climate Change
Italy Multiple Floods mostly strengthened by Human-driven Climate Change
Between October 18 and 19, severe storms and heavy rainfall caused widespread flooding in parts of Italy and central France. Emilia Romagna in Italy was hardest hit, with over 160 mm of rain in Bologna in just four hours, leading to dangerous flooding and over 3,000 evacuations across the region. A young man tragically died after being swept away by a flood in Pianoro. The flooding affected cities such as Ravenna, Modena, and Reggio Emilia, while the overflowing of rivers and streams caused further damage. More than 300 firefighting operations took place, particularly in Bologna.
Between October 18 and 19, severe storms and heavy rainfall caused widespread flooding in parts of Italy and central France. Emilia Romagna in Italy was hardest hit, with over 160 mm of rain in Bologna in just four hours, leading to dangerous flooding and over 3,000 evacuations across the region. A young man tragically died after being swept away by a flood in Pianoro. The flooding affected cities such as Ravenna, Modena, and Reggio Emilia, while the overflowing of rivers and streams caused further damage. More than 300 firefighting operations took place, particularly in Bologna.
ClimaMeter found that the meteorological conditions triggering multiple floods in Italy were extremely rare, in terms of strength and intensity, compared to the historical record of similar storms. There are few historical records that match the intensity of the storm. Mediterranean depressions similar to that causing multiple floods in Italy in October 2024, show increased precipitation (up to 10 mm/day, or up to 25% more precipitation) and produce stronger winds (up to 6 km/h, representing a 10% increase in wind strength) in the present compared to the past. Natural phenomena such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation may have played a role alongside human-driven climate change, mostly in driving the trajectory of the depression causing the floods.
ClimaMeter found that the meteorological conditions triggering multiple floods in Italy were extremely rare, in terms of strength and intensity, compared to the historical record of similar storms. There are few historical records that match the intensity of the storm. Mediterranean depressions similar to that causing multiple floods in Italy in October 2024, show increased precipitation (up to 10 mm/day, or up to 25% more precipitation) and produce stronger winds (up to 6 km/h, representing a 10% increase in wind strength) in the present compared to the past. Natural phenomena such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation may have played a role alongside human-driven climate change, mostly in driving the trajectory of the depression causing the floods.
Heavy Rainfall in Hurricane Milton linked to Human-Driven Climate Change, though confidence is low
Heavy Rainfall in Hurricane Milton linked to Human-Driven Climate Change, though confidence is low
Hurricane Milton rapidly intensified from a tropical depression to a Category 5 hurricane in just over 48 hours, becoming the fifth most intense Atlantic storm on record with winds peaking at 290 km/h. After making landfall in Florida as a Category 3 storm, it caused severe flooding, with parts of southern Florida receiving up to 18.87 inches of rain, prompting storm surge warnings.
Hurricane Milton rapidly intensified from a tropical depression to a Category 5 hurricane in just over 48 hours, becoming the fifth most intense Atlantic storm on record with winds peaking at 290 km/h. After making landfall in Florida as a Category 3 storm, it caused severe flooding, with parts of southern Florida receiving up to 18.87 inches of rain, prompting storm surge warnings.
ClimaMeter analysis shows that Hurricane Milton was extremely rare, in terms of strength and intensity, compared to the historical record of similar storms. There are few historical records that match the intensity of the storm. Cyclones similar to Hurricane Milton bring up to 12 mm of rain per day more than in the period 1980-2000. That’s equivalent to 20% more rain. Natural phenomena such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation may have played a role alongside human-driven climate change, mostly in driving the trajectory of the cyclone.
ClimaMeter analysis shows that Hurricane Milton was extremely rare, in terms of strength and intensity, compared to the historical record of similar storms. There are few historical records that match the intensity of the storm. Cyclones similar to Hurricane Milton bring up to 12 mm of rain per day more than in the period 1980-2000. That’s equivalent to 20% more rain. Natural phenomena such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation may have played a role alongside human-driven climate change, mostly in driving the trajectory of the cyclone.
Image: Hurricane Milton CIRA | NOAA | Via Reuters
Heavy Precipitations and Strong Winds in Storm Kirk exacerbated by both human-driven climate change and natural variability
Heavy Precipitations and Strong Winds in Storm Kirk exacerbated by both human-driven climate change and natural variability
On October 9, the remnants of Hurricane Kirk entered France after impacting northern Spain and the Bay of Biscay. The storm brought winds up to 150 km/h to northern France, including Paris, and caused heavy rainfall, with 90 mm falling near Nantes in just a few hours, leading to widespread flooding and road closures. Central regions like Centre-Val de Loire also experienced significant flooding.
On October 9, the remnants of Hurricane Kirk entered France after impacting northern Spain and the Bay of Biscay. The storm brought winds up to 150 km/h to northern France, including Paris, and caused heavy rainfall, with 90 mm falling near Nantes in just a few hours, leading to widespread flooding and road closures. Central regions like Centre-Val de Loire also experienced significant flooding.
ClimaMeter found that depressions similar to storm Kirk, which produced floods in France, show increased precipitation along the Atlantic coast (up to 14 mm/day, representing up to 20% more precipitation) and decreased precipitation along the Mediterranean coast (up to 16 mm/day, or up to 40% less precipitation) in the present compared to the past, although the Mediterranean coasts were less affected by Kirk. Depressions similar to Kirk are deeper (by -2 hPa) and produce stronger winds (up to 12 km/h, representing a 12% increase in wind strength) in the present. We interpret Storm Kirk as an event for which natural climate variability played a role.
ClimaMeter found that depressions similar to storm Kirk, which produced floods in France, show increased precipitation along the Atlantic coast (up to 14 mm/day, representing up to 20% more precipitation) and decreased precipitation along the Mediterranean coast (up to 16 mm/day, or up to 40% less precipitation) in the present compared to the past, although the Mediterranean coasts were less affected by Kirk. Depressions similar to Kirk are deeper (by -2 hPa) and produce stronger winds (up to 12 km/h, representing a 12% increase in wind strength) in the present. We interpret Storm Kirk as an event for which natural climate variability played a role.
Other Recent Extreme Events
Other Recent Extreme Events
